Imagine you have been watching a program on CNN in which scientists announce that they are on the brink of finding a cure for AIDS but their success is dependent upon a five year extension of a major government genetics research grant. A debate follows between politicians running for an immanent election. How would you vote if the crisis requires that 3 of the following six programs must be eliminated in order to bring the federal deficit under control.
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1. The newly successful space program that promises technological progress and jobs.
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2. Tax credits for family child support.
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3. Teenage job training.
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4. Genetic AIDS Research.
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5. Health coverage for genetic medicine
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6. Foreign aid to starving refugees.
(a) Problem definition
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1.The federal deficit is increasing so fast that the future of government programs in general is being bankrupted. Action is essential now.
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2. The Federal government is obligated to deal with disasters at home before it takes care of disasters abroad.
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3. Issues of pain and suffering leading to death take precedence over tax credits.
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4. Chronic unemployment in youth is shown to lead to virtual unemployability is later years. The financial consequences of ignoring this are worse than loss of high tech jobs created by Space programs. Social instability and a massive jail population are unacceptable.
(b) 4 Solutions.
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1. Declare a national emergency. Cut back interest payable on government loans to an amount equal to that needed for the essential programs.
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2. Cut foreign aid, space program and tax credits.
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3. Pay for programs by declaring foreign aid to refugees and the space program wholly the responsibility of the Pentagon and refuse increase in funding to the Pentagon. Require insurance companies and HMOs to cover genetic medicine by law.
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4. Institute progressive taxation to the level that existed in the pre-Reagan era so as to pay off the federal deficit and maintain essential programs.
(c) Consequences for solutions 1-4
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1. The value of the dollar plummets. The federal reserve is forced to drop its interest rates too. Inflation dramatically increases but it solves the short term crisis.
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2. Initially there are reports of increase in child and infant mortality at the refugee camps but Japan asserts itself as a global power and gives massive aid. The loss of tax credits has no immediate impact and the space program becomes totally international.
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3. The Pentagon finds ways to administer the refugee problem and the space program. It has to cut back on its research and development into new weapon capability.
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4. The return to pre-Reagan tax causes a right wing populist revolt that leads to a change in government so that all federal programs are canceled except for the military.
(d) Plan and Measures of success
Choose solution 1
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1. Declare a national emergency.
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2. Create an independent commission to supervise the negotiation of government loans so that loss to small investors is minimal and loss to major investors is mostly in terms of projected long term profit based upon recent interest rates.
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Measures :—Federal deficit is managed so that essential humanitarian government programs are not threatened.
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-Loss to investors in Government bonds does not destabilize companies and citizens on fixed incomes.
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-Inflation is temporary and the federal reserve agency is authorized to take those steps needed to control inflation.